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Deployed Warhead Limit
Compliance Concern: Because of Russia’s noncompliance with its obligation
to facilitate inspection activities, the United States has less confidence in
the accuracy of Russia’s declarations regarding the number of warheads on
deployed ICBMs, warheads on deployed SLBMs, and nuclear warheads
counted for deployed heavy bombers during 2022. In Russia’s most recent
data update, as of September 1, 2022, it declared 1,549 treaty-accountable
warheads. This warhead declaration is only one under 1,550 and is closer
to the limit than any of Russia’s previous declarations since the New START
warhead limit took effect on February 5, 2018. As a result of Russia’s close
proximity to the warhead limit and our inability to spot-check the accuracy
of Russian warhead declarations, the United States is unable to make a
determination that Russia remained in compliance throughout 2022 with
its obligation to limit its deployed warheads on delivery vehicles subject to
the New START Treaty to 1,550. While this is a serious concern, it is not a
determination of noncompliance. Additionally, the United States assesses
that Russia did not engage in significant activity above the Treaty limits in
2022. The United States also assesses that Russia was likely under the New
START warhead limit at the end of 2022.
Background: Article II(b) of the New START Treaty limits the warheads on
deployed ICBMs, warheads on deployed SLBMs, and nuclear warheads
counted for deployed heavy bombers to 1,550. The New START Treaty
obligates the United States and Russia to declare and count toward the
numerical limit warheads on deployed ICBMs and SLBMs (and each
deployed heavy bomber subject to the Treaty counts as one warhead